March 20, 2019, 9:42 pm
#stayhomebewell for updates
Global Cases: up by nearly 31,000 cases, or 12.54 percent, to 277,500. Only very slightly higher than yesterday’s increase of 12.47 percent. This might represent an inflection point in Europe. I don’t know. Too early to draw a conclusion, but at least it is not leaps and bounds higher than yesterday’s rate of growth in cases.
Global Deaths: Up by 1,300 cases, or 12.92 percent, to 11,485. Half a percentage point lower than yesterday’s increase, but that might be merely because I’m writing an hour earlier than I did yesterday, or because of a lag in reporting, or whatever. Again, at least it is not leaps and bounds higher.
Global Recoveries: Up by 3, 475, or 3.93 percent, to 91,912.
The ratio of cases to recoveries is increasing. This is bad. Total Cases = Deaths + Recoveries. Therefore, Cases/Recoveries will never equal 100 percent but the closer this ratio gets to 100 percent the better. I believe that the curve of this ratio shows the movement of the virus geographically, but I could be misinterpreting it.
In the beginning of the pandemic, when all activity was concentrated in China, there were many cases and no recoveries, which meant that Cases/Recoveries was infinity. At the point when there were 17,000 cases and 500 recoveries, this ratio was 3,400 percent. Cases increased, but recoveries also increased, and this ratio came steadily down. At China’s inflection point on February 12, the ratio stood at 990 percent. The inflection point was the day of the peak in the rate of growth in total cases. From February 12 until March 6, that ratio declined from 990 percent to 176 percent, meaning that the recoveries were gaining ground. After March 6, the ratio began to increase again, which I think represented the movement of the pandemic’s epicenter to Europe. From March 7 till today, that ratio has been increasing, and currently stands at 302 percent. An upward slope will mean that cases are outnumbering recoveries, and I think it will continue to be indicative of the virus’ movement geographically. When the virus has devastated Europe, the curve will turn downward again. And then it will turn upward again, representing its movement through the United States.
US Cases: increased by 40 percent, or more than 5,600 new cases in a single day, to a total of 19,575 as of writing. The previous days’ increases were 45 percent and 48 percent. It is possible that one additional hour of reporting would have brought today’s increase up to or above the 48 percent level.
US Deaths: increased by 27 percent, or 55 new deaths, to a total of 262. The current (simplified) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was 1.34 percent.
US Recoveries: rose by 36 percent (39 recoveries) to a total of 147.
