July 1, 2020
On May 1, I had predicted 50,000 cases per day by May 13. On May 13, I showed that my prediction had been incorrect. We reached 50,000 new cases in a single day today, July 1. That means that my prediction was early by 50 days. Seven weeks.
I was wrong about my projections for the daily number of deaths, as well. I was predicting 4,000 deaths per day by May 13.
Now I will project 3,000 new deaths per day by August 1. We shall see.
The extended rolling average growth rate in Unresolved cases in the United States has risen by 0.1 (one-tenth of one percent) each day (with a couple of twd-day exceptions) since it bottomed at 0.3 percent on June 11. It currently stands at 1.5 percent. That is on a base of nearly 1.5 million currently infected people.
The following graphs show the current state of my ongoing predictions about total Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries in the United States.
It appears that we are ahead of schedule to reach 3.5 million total Cases by July 29:
The real curve of total Deaths at first grew ahead of schedule, and then slowed down, and now appears to be inflecting upwards again. I will not revise my prediction lines until July 29, in order to test my model against reality.
Recoveries appear to be about 21 days ahead of my projection to reach 1.3 million by July 29. It looks like July 8 is a more likely target date.
This is a single point of good news.