#stayhomebewell
Forgive me, friends, for I have procrastinated. It has been three months since my last update.
The third wave in the United States crested on November 22, 2020, when the extended rolling average growth rate in the number of active, unresolved cases peaked at 2.4 percent (the average of 10 seven-day rolling averages). Though the growth rate was declining, with the final peak of the third wave occurred January 15, 2021, at 1.3 percent (there were 309,000 new cases on January 8, and 250,000 on January 15). The growth rate entered into the negative on February 7, 2021, bottomed at -0.6 percent for eleven days from February 21 to March 3, and has been increasing, though still in negative growth, until yesterday. Yesterday, the growth rate was zero percent.
More important than the absolute number of new cases, however, is the number of active cases, as that is the metric that reflects the potential strain on the hospital system. That number peaked at 9,097,729 on January 31. From that date till April 12 (five days ago), the number of unresolved cases was declining. However, on April 12, that number bottomed at 6,857,530. It has been increasing for the last five days.
The fourth wave is upon us.
According to the CDC, around 25 percent of the U.S. population (82.5 million) has been fully vaccinated, and another 50 million have had their first dose, so we’ll consider that within a month the country will be close to 40 percent fully vaccinated. Some polls and articles suggest that roughly 60 million Americans will refuse to be vaccinated (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/16/1016264/covid-vaccine-acceptance-us-county/). So, if one month from now there are 130 million vaccinated and 60 million who refuse, then that leaves 140 million who may get vaccinated. At the current rate of 4 million vaccinations per day, it would take 35 days to vaccinate that remaining 140 million. In sum, around two months from now, it may be the case that everyone who will get vaccinated will be vaccinated, and those 60 million who won’t, won’t.
If twenty percent of those are age 60 or older, then that would be 12 million. The U.S. adult obesity rate is roughly 40 percent (https://www.americanobesity.org/obesityInAmerica.htm). There is probably a positive correlation between refusal to be vaccinated and obesity, so it is likely that the obesity rate among vaccine refusers is closer to 50 percent (the maps of vaccine refusal and obesity are nearly identical).
That is six million obese adults over the age of 60. Supposing (generously) that only 10 percent of those contract covid, that would be 600,000 new infections. And supposing that two percent of those will die, then that would be 12,000 fatalities. Maybe it’s not such a high price for freedom?