April 12, 2020, 11:30 pm
#stayhomebewell for past, current, and future analysis of the COVID19 pandemic. stayhomebewell.org. and www.facebook.com/stayhomebewell. Please react and share on any platform you use. It still matters what people do.
I don’t have time to do in-depth analysis and to identify new and interesting insights every day, as much as I’d like to. Some days, I’ll have to make do with just reporting the numbers. I would like to encourage you to go back in the archives of this blog, however, and read what I wrote on those days when I did manage to dig more deeply into the meanings behind the numbers, as that will help you to understand what the numbers themselves mean on days like today when I can’t devote as much time. By using the same several charts, my hope is that you will become familiar with the interpretation of each, and as we fill in a single data point day by day, you will see the picture unfolding in real time, as I have been trying to do.
The primary takeaway from today’s numbers remains unchanged from that of previous days: the United States is only just coming through the first wave of a massive storm. There are many waves yet to come, and they will come sooner than you think, with greater severity than you think, and with less time than you would hope for in between.
It bears repeating: I hope that I am wrong about EVERYTHING. Please read through the archives and judge for yourself.
Global Cases: up 4.1 percent, or 72,850 new infections today, to 1,853,000. This rate of daily increase continues the downward trend in the growth rate that has been present since March 10 [edit: this is an error, and should read March 20.].
US Cases: up 5.17 percent, or 27,555, to 560,433. This is the lowest percentage increase since February 28, when five percent represented only 3 cases. Today five percent represents more than 27,000 cases.
Global Deaths: up 5 percent, or 5,420 people who have died today, to 114,245 victims of the COVID-19 pandemic. This growth rate, too, continues the decreasing trend that last peaked at 14.4 percent on March 21. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 6.16 percent is the highest since the low point of 2 percent on February 4.
US Deaths: up 7.5 percent, or 1,540 people who died today, bringing the total to 22,115. The CFR is 3.95 percent, the highest rate since March 8, when there were only 22 dead.
In the chart above, I predict we will see undulations showing an increasing number of Recoveries, as the Unresolved patients in New York join the ranks of the Recovered. The relative portion of Unresolved will decrease for a time, perhaps for another 14-21 days. After that time, the next wave of new cases in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, and on down the list will swell the ranks of the Unresolved. As each state moves through its disease timeline, the same undulations will occur.
I predict, however, that the waves associated with each of those states, and every state behind them, will grow less and less distinct in terms of the time lags between them. Soon, perhaps within the next 28 days, the entire United States will appear as a single massive wave, and the smaller component waves of each state will become undistinguishable. Furthermore, once the pandemic leaves the flat portion of the exponential growth curve in high-population countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, etc., the United States will be dwarfed as a portion of the Global total.
The global low point in the CFR was 2 percent on February 4th and 5th. Fifty-one days later, the US CFR touched its low point of 1.25 percent. This means that there were the greatest number of newly-recorded infections compared to the number of patients who had died. I think that this speaks more to the timing of the course of the disease than to anything else. In the beginning of the pandemic, many people had only just become infected, but had not had time enough for the disease to run its course. With each passing day, more new Cases were recorded, adding to the denominator, and eventually, those who were going to die died. The CFR has increased continually since that time, as the disease conveyor belt, if you will, continues its throughput.
The hospital system is full of Cases, and those who are going to recover eventually recover, and those who are going to die eventually die. So far, on the Global scale, the More infections continue the throughput, and the CFR, at least with respect to documented Cases, rises to its actual level. We do not know at what level it will top out. Eventually, in theory, when the last new Cases are added to the conveyor belt, those Cases who were roughly 21-28 days old will either recover or die, and the ratio of Deaths to Cases, the CFR, will be at its higest. Supposing we witness the last two cases in this pandemic, and one is Unresolved and the other Dies, then the CFR on that day will be 1/1, or 100 percent. If, on the other hand, one is Unresolved and the other Recovers, then the CFR on that day will be zero percent.
The global CFR increased by 100 percent, from 2 percent to 4 percent of Cases resulting in deaths over those same 51 days between February 4 and March 22. The US CFR, by contrast, increased from its low of 1.25 percent to the 4 percent level in only 23 days. Over those same 23 days, the Global CFR increased another 50 percent, from 4 percent to 6 percent of all Cases resulting in Deaths. If the past is a guide, the US CFR will increase to 6 percent in less than half the time it took for the Global rate. This would mean that the US CFR will likely increase to 6 percent in roughly 10 days from today, or by April 22. I hope that I am wrong, and we can return in ten days to check the accuracy of this prediction.
Global Recoveries: up 4.85 percent, or 19,600, to 423,625. Global Recoveries outnumber Global Deaths by a ratio of almost 4-to-1.
US Recoveries: up 7.16 percent, or 2,180 leaving the ranks of the ill today, bringing the total to 32,634. Currently, Recoveries in the United States outnumber Deaths by a ratio of 3-to-2.
Global Unresolved: up 3.8 percent, or 47,825, to 1,315,285 patients currently ill with COVID-19 to one degree or another. This rate of increase is the lowest since March 10, and the absolute number is the lowest since March 30.
US Unresolved: up 4.95 percent, or 23,835, to 505,685.
