April 24, 2020, 10:30 pm
#stayhomebewell for past, current, and future analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.stayhomebewell.org. and www.facebook.com/stayhomebewell. Instagram and Twitter, too. Please react and share on any platform you use. It still matters what people do.
Global Cases: up 4.1 percent, or 111,350, to 2,830,050. This is an increase of 30,000 more cases today than yesterday’s 81,000 new cases. I don’t know if this is due to some new record-keeping procedure, or new definition of what constitutes a recorded case, such as deaths that occurred in nursing homes, or in private homes that were previously not diagnosed as COVID-19, but it represents an anomaly in the dataset.
US Cases: up 5.1 percent, or 44,835, to 925,038. The last time the growth rate was 5 percent or higher was on April 16, which was eight days ago. For the seven days from April 17 to April 23, the growth rate decreased to a low point of 3.31 percent on April 21, after which it has been rising. The 7-day rolling average growth rate appears to have hit a low point on April 23, at 3.8 percent, whereas today it is 3.9 percent. This may indicate the trough in the curve. The extended rolling average growth rate, or the 10-day average of 7-day rolling average growth rates, is still in decline today, at 4.6 percent, which is the lowest it has ever been.
Global Deaths: up 3.46 percent, or 6,591, to 197,245.
US Deaths: up 4.7 percent, or 2,340, to 52,185.
Global Recoveries: up 7.1 percent, or 52,150, to 798,775. Today’s increase in Recoveries is nearly double that of the average increase over the past 19 days.
US Recoveries: up 28.5 percent, or 24,500, to 110,432. This is an anomaly, as the average daily increase over the last 30 days has been 2,850.
The establishment of the trough in the US Recoveries extended rolling average growth rate curve is clear.
Global Unresolved: up 2.9 percent, or 51,610, to 1,834,034. The trough in the growth rate appears to be forming.
US Unresolved: up 2.4 percent, or 17,985, to 762,421. The trough is forming in this curve as well. How long it will persist at low growth rates is unclear. I predict that after one to two weeks, we will see a return to increasing growth rates in this metric, which will mean that more people, on balance, will be sick with COVID-19 each day.
That’s all for tonight. Not much explanation. Just the basic numbers and a few graphs.