April 19, 2020, 8:30 pm
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Global Cases: up 3.2 percent, or 75,150, to 2,406,250. I maintain that the growth rate is likely in a trough which may persist for another 5-7 days, after which we will see a return to increasing growth rates. If this happens, we will be in for a terrible ride. If the growth rate in Global Cases were to be a persistent five percent from today, then in 30 days we would reach 10 million cases globally. If the growth rate were not to remain steady at five percent, but were instead to grow by, say, one half of one percent each day? We would reach 10 million in only 16 days.
US Cases: up 3.4 percent, or 25,400, to 764,303. If the growth rate in US cases remained flat at 3 percent, then in 9 days we will reach one million cases in the United States. If that rate did not remain flat, but returned to increasing, say, by one half of one percent per day, then we would reach one million cases in 6 days.
Those who have been following this blog will recall that, on March 15, when the United States had only 3,700 cases, I projected that we would reach 80,000 by April 15. See the April 15 post for a detailed discussion of my past projections and revisions. In short, I revised my projection upwards several times; first to 200,000 cases, then to 500,000 cases, and finally to 750,000 cases by April 15. I was off by four days.
Global Deaths: up 2.64 percent, or 4,245, to 165,000. The rate of growth continues to slow. Recall, however, that a growth rate of zero percent would simply mean that each day, another 4,245 people would die, day after day after day. We’re talking about the GROWTH rate. Many people don’t seem to understand that. Only when the GROWTH rate goes into negative numbers will we see fewer deaths each day than on the previous day. I predicted in recent posts that we will see a bottoming out of the growth rate in Global Deaths forming a trough at around zero percent sometime in mid-May. That will mean that, when that time arrives, we will see only, say, 10,000 deaths per day for a period of, say seven days, after which that number will start to increase again each day.
US Deaths: up 4 percent, or 1,530, to 40,548. Several weeks ago, I projected that we would reach 45,000 deaths by April 15. I was wrong. We won’t reach that number for another two or three days.
I’m revising my projection of when we can expect to reach the trough in the US Deaths growth rate curve. Yesterday, I had it projected at around May 7. Today, I am revising it to around May 20. As I explained above, a reduction in the growth rate to zero simply means that the number of new deaths each day remains the same as the previous day—no higher, no lower.
Today we are at 40,548. If the growth rate were to just hold constant at 3 percent, then we would reach 100,000 dead in the United States in exactly 31 days. May 20.
If, instead, the rate were to decrease by one half of one percent each day for the next 7 days, then we would reach a rate of zero percent, at which time we would have 46,561 deaths, and the daily increase would have dropped to a mere 230 deaths per day. Suppose that the number of deaths neither grew nor fell, then, for a period of 8 more days (the trough), then we would have 48,401. If the rate then began a sustained rise by one half of one percent each day, then after another 17 days, we would reach 100,000 dead in America. 7 days + 8 days + 17 days = 32 days. May 21.
I’m not saying I’m right. I’m just saying that, if we make certain assumptions, then this is what the math says. The question then becomes, are those assumptions reasonable?
Today’s date is April 19, 2020. Fight me.
Global Recoveries: up 4.64 percent, or 27,720, to 625,000. The extended rolling average growth rate is on the decline since a high of 7.9 percent on April 9. This curve, as all of the others, shows waves with more than one peak and trough. As I’ve stated before, I believe that these undulations are representations of the movement of the virus across the geography of the globe. While I cannot predict the invention of a vaccine, or the behavior of the mob in our country or in others, I predict that all of these curves will show multiple undulations over time. To say that this one marks the end, rather than to recognize that it likely represents only the end of a first wave, to my mind, is to grasp at the flimsiest of hopes.
US Recoveries: up 4 percent, or 2,715, to 71,000. The percentage of US Cases resolving in Recoveries has been growing, and currently stands at 9.3 percent.
It appears the trough is already forming in US Recoveries. If the growth rate begins to increase in 5-7 days, that will be an indication of the tapering off of new infections entering the hospital system in New York, and the resolution of the cases that deluged that system over the last 2-4 weeks.
Global Unresolved: up 2.75 percent, or 43,200, to 1,616,322.
US Unresolved:
In the 21 days between February 15 and March 7, the number of Unresolved Cases in the United States increased from 15 (remember that infamous number?) to 410.
In the subsequent 21 days to March 28, that number increased by 118,000.
And in the subsequent 21 days to April 18, the number of Unresolved Cases in the United States rose by 513,000 cases.
This is what people mean when they talk about exponential growth.
What do you suppose is going to happen in the next 21 days? Time to open up the country?
If you’ve read to this point, then perhaps you’ll read this last bit.
All of these people who are arguing about what is or isn’t going to happen seem to me like the people who argue in the first quarter of a football game about who is going to win the game. Tempers flare, insults are hurled, oaths are uttered, but all are futile. None of either side’s fan’s insults or oaths of fealty to their team will have had any impact on the outcome. And just because one side believed fervently that his team would win, should his team happen to have won, it wasn’t due to that fan’s ardour. Exactly as it wouldn’t have been due to him had his team lost. If both dummies would just shut up and wait a couple of hours, it would become obvious exactly who won the game.
Here we have people screaming back and forth at one another about something that will become as clear as the mass graves into which the bodies are going to be placed, if only they would shut up and wait a couple of weeks.
Stay home and be well.