April 08, 2020, 6:30 pm
One of the reasons I have been making and documenting predictions over the last month or so has not been because I am convinced that my projections are correct, but rather because I do not know whether they are correct. Below is a chart I projected on March 19. On that date, the United States had 13,921 cases. Given the assumption that was prevalent at that time, that the doubling rate would be six days, I projected that by today, April 8, we would be at a level of approximately 100,000 cases. In fact, we are at 400,000 cases. According to my projection, we should not have reached that level until April 22, two weeks from now.
Every six days thereafter, I updated the projected number with the actual number, and that then led to updated projections moving forward as each new 6-day milestone was reached.
On March 29, the actual case number was 142,004. By inputting that data into the projection, the resulting chart projected that we would have 248,008 cases by April 4.
The actual number was 311,357. This figure would predict 6,227 deaths, but the actual tally on that day was 8,452.
Finally, updating the seed figure for April 4, the resulting projection predicts 622,714 cases and 12,454 deaths.
As of this writing, on April 8, we have already surpassed 14,000 deaths.
Given the above projections about infections, or Cases, if we assume a Case Fatality Rate of two percent (which may be overly optimistic), then we are faced with the following projections regarding Deaths in the United States:
The question is, will the actions taken in Manhattan have an effect on New Orleans? Los Angeles? Detroit? Chicago? Or throughout the rural South?
My projections have never been meant to be precise statements of what the future would bring. They were meant only to illustrate what the mathematics of exponential growth would dictate, if left to continue as they had, in order to bring home to people that 15 cases on February 13 does not “soon go down to zero.” Rather, in exactly 52 days, 15 cases goes to 311,357 cases.
For those who still don’t believe that what is happening is happening, please refer them to this blog and try to walk them through what they are failing to understand.
I fear for the people who will soon be dying needlessly. But what I really fear is that someone may drag my children or me into that number. I fear for my children that they may come to harm. I fear for myself that my children could be orphaned.
Please stay home and be well.
