March 27, 2020, 8:20 pm
Global Cases: up 11.8 percent, or 62,660, to 594,350.
Global Deaths: up 13.2 percent, or 3,180, to 27,250.
Global Recoveries: up 7 percent, or 8,700, to 132,620.
Global Unresolved: up 13.25 percent, or 50,785, to 434,470.
There are over four hundred thousand people sick with this virus worldwide as I write these words. Two percent of them will surely die. That is eight thousand people.
US Cases: up 20 percent, or 17,130, to 102,400. Seventeen thousand new sick people. Today. Three hundred forty of them will die.
US Deaths: up 24.3 percent, or 314, to 1,607.
US Recoveries: up 32.6 percent, or 607, to 2,470.
US Unresolved: up 19.75 percent, or 16,200, to 98,320. Three hundred twenty of these will die.
I don’t know whether this is a valid ratio to cite, but I can’t help but notice that there were 607 recoveries and 314 deaths in the US today. This is almost exactly a two-to-one split (66%-34%) between recoveries and deaths. This seems to me to be an exceedingly high number, when the figure we are generally taking as the case fatality rate (CFR) has been two percent of total cases.
The corresponding ratio in Global cases is 8,700 to 3,180. This is a three-to-one split (73%-27%). This suggests that, so far, COVID-19 is more lethal in the US than it has been globally.
If we divide Deaths by Total Cases, that gives us a crude measure of lethality. Taking the average lethality of each day’s figures globally, where N=65 as of today, the average lethality has been 3.13 percent.
The corresponding figure for the US, where N=28, the average lethality has been 2.83 percent. This figure appears to contradict what I just wrote regarding the virus being more lethal in the US to date. I’m not sure what conclusion to draw. Perhaps that the difference in the magnitude of N is significant.