April 23, 2020, 10:20 pm
#stayhomebewell for past, current, and future analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.stayhomebewell.org. and www.facebook.com/stayhomebewell. Instagram and Twitter, too. Please react and share on any platform you use. It still matters what people do.
Global Cases: up 3.1 percent, or 81,025, to 2,718,700. The extended rolling average growth rate today is 4.0 percent. A few days ago, I projected that the trough I’m expecting in this growth rate wouldn’t form until around May 4th, at a level of around 2 percent, but the last three days suggest that the trough is actually forming now at a level of 4 percent.
US: Cases: up 3.7 percent, or 31,210, to 880,204. The extended rolling average growth rate in US cases is 4.8 percent, and the trough appears to be forming. I’ve written several times that the one thing that seems to be consistent in this pandemic process is that everything has happened more quickly than people have expected, including me. Whereas previously I predicted the formation of the trough in early May, it appears to be forming now. Once it bottoms out, it will return to increasing rates of growth each day.
I don’t see any reason to assume that the behavior of the US curve should be any different from that of the Global curve. Italy, Spain, and other European countries enacted strict lockdowns, to which their publics, by all accounts, adhered well. The US has been more lax with its shelter-in-place policies, and the US populace less compliant. While the US health infrastructure may be more extensive than that of those countries, as far as I can see, the treatment available to US patients is no different than that which was available to Europeans only three weeks ago. Therefore, where the Global curve stood at 857,000 cases 21 days ago and has risen to 2,718,700 today, the US curve today is at 880,204. The US curve is only slightly flatter than the Global curve, and if it continues along its current trajectory for another 21 days, we will see 1,500,000 cases by May 13.
Global Deaths: up 3.5 percent, or 6,437, to 190,654. The extended rolling average growth rate is 5.5 percent.
US Deaths: up 4.55 percent, or 2,170, to 49,845. The extended rolling average growth rate is 9.1 percent.
Global Recoveries: up 3.9 percent, or 27,995, to 745,620. The extended rolling average growth rate is 5.8 percent.
US Recoveries: up 2.2 percent, or 1,872, to 85,922. The extended rolling average growth rate is 10.6 percent, and the trough appears to have fully formed. We can expect a return to increasing growth rates in recoveries in the coming days.
Global Unresolved: up 2.7 percent, or 46,594, to 1,782,425. The trough appears to be forming at an extended rolling average growth rate of around 2.6 percent.
US Unresolved: up 3.8 percent, or 27,170, to 744,437. The extended rolling average growth rate is 4.2 percent. It looks like the trough in this curve is still several days away from establishing a bottom.
All four of the Global rolling average growth rates are converging at between 2.6 and 4.5 percent. I’m not sure what the significance of that observation is, I’m merely observing it. Perhaps a reader can suggest an insight to be drawn from it.
The corresponding US rates of growth are also converging, albeit with a slightly greater spread. Cases and Unresolved are nearly identical, as are Deaths and Recoveries. You can see from the Global chart, that the pandemic has completed one full cycle of peak and trough, where the second has gone through its peak and is currently forming its trough. The US portion of the pandemic has not yet completed its first cycle. The second wave is coming, and I project we will see a return to increasing average growth rates in all four measures over the coming two weeks.
Here are the global overview charts I’ve been filling in day by day for several weeks. If you are new to this blog, I suggest you go back into the archives and read the more detailed explanations I have given in previous posts. If you are a returning reader, then you will understand the implications of these graphs at a glance. The proportion of Deaths to All Cases globally is 7 percent, while Unresolved are 66 percent and Recoveries are 27 percent.
The proportion of Deaths to all Cases in the US now is 5.7 percent, while Unresolved are 84.6 percent and Recoveries are 9.8 percent.
The US states of Georgia, Florida, Texas, and several others are at levels of infection and deaths that correspond with where the US as a whole was on March 20. These governors don’t seem to understand that the only thing differentiating their states from New York and New Jersey is time. Nevada is a scant four to eleven days behind them, and the Mayor of Las Vegas seems also to fail to understand.
Here is another way of looking at the same data:
Please continue to stay home, and be well.