April 18, 2020, 11:00 pm
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I continue to place markers by making predictions. Please hold me to them.
Global Cases: up 3.6 percent, or 80,425, to 2,331,100. Today’s rate of growth in New Cases is greater than yesterday’s, which was 3.25 percent and was the lowest since March 5.
I think we still need another 5-7 days of data in order to call yesterday a bottom in the curve of the global growth rate.
US Cases: up 4.1 percent, or 28,900, to 739,000.
Global Deaths: up 4.2 percent, or 6,500, to 160,760.
The growth rate was the lowest since March 7. I project the extended rolling average curve will bottom out at close to zero percent around May 13.
As a percent of all Global Cases, Deaths are rising to an all-time high of 7 percent.
US Deaths: up 5 percent, or 1,857, to 39,015.
From the first US death 50 days ago, the average daily increase has been 23.5 percent. The current extended rolling average growth rate is 12 percent and declining. If the average growth rate is, say, 7 percent over the next seven days, we can expect to see 60,000 dead. If the rate then decreases to 5 percent for another seven days, we can expect to see 80,000 dead. And if, as I am predicting, we then see a return to increasing growth rates, the god help us all.
Global Recoveries: up 4.4 percent, or 25,125, to 597,200. This growth rate is the lowest since March 23.
US Recoveries: up 12.85 percent, or 7,775, to 68,285.
The percent of Recoveries in the US continues to rise, and is currently at 9.2 percent.
The rate of growth in Recoveries has been decreasing since April 4, but appears to be forming a trough and will likely resume growth over the coming 5-7 days.
Global Unresolved: up 3.2 percent, or 48,800, to 1,573,132. Today’s rate of growth is higher that the most recent low point of 2.4 percent on April 14. The extended rolling average growth rate is 3.1 percent. It is hard to call it in real time, but I believe we may be in a trough, so expect this figure to revert to upward growth. This is bad news, but not unexpected, as it is a sign of a new wave gathering.
US Unresolved: up 3.15 percent, or 19,260, to 631,613. As long as this number is increasing, we are still climbing the mountain.
The extended rolling average rate of growth is 6.3 percent. This rate has been decreasing since March 24. The curve appears as though it might cross into negative growth around May 10, which would be cause for some celebration. However, as we’ve seen from the Global Unresolved between February 20 and March 6, this measure can dip into negative growth for a period of time and then return to positive territory.
Stay home and be well.