March 28, 2020, 10:30 pm
Global Cases: up 11.7 percent, or 69,400 new cases, to 663,750. The first case was on December 31, 2019, in China.
Global Deaths: up 13.3 percent, or 3,630 deaths today, to 30,880.
Global Recoveries: up 7.2 percent, or 9,560 recoveries today, to 142,180.
Global Unresolved: up 13 percent, or 56,200, to 490,675 currently ill patients around the world.
The ratio of Cases to Recoveries would be 1.0, or 100 percent, if every case ended in a recovery and the pandemic were over. The higher the ratio of Cases to Recoveries, the worse an indicator it is. If there were 10 cases and only 1 recovery, the ratio would be 10.0, or 1,000 percent. The current global ratio of Cases to Recoveries is 4.67, or 467 percent.
The ratio of Deaths to Recoveries would be 1.0, or 100 percent, if for every one case that ended in death, there were also one case that ended in recovery. The current global ratio of Deaths to Recoveries is 0.22, or 22 percent, because for every one death, there have been nearly five recoveries. If there were 100 Recoveries for every 1 Death, this ratio would be 0.01, or 1 percent. Therefore, the lower this figure, the better. When there were very few Cases, and the first Death occurred, there would still have been relatively few Recoveries, since, presumably, Recoveries take longer than Deaths. So in the beginning of the pandemic, on February 1, 2020 the ratio of Deaths to Recoveries was as high as 72 percent. That number dropped steadily through its low of 6 percent on March 7. Since that date, it has risen and currently stands at 22 percent. A higher number is worse news.
US Cases: up 21 percent, or 21,350 new infections today, to 123,750.
US Deaths: up 38.6 percent, or 620 deaths today, to 2,227. An increase of this rate indicates exponential growth.
US Recoveries: up 30.8 percent, or 760 newly recovered US patients today, to 3,231.
The ratio of new deaths to new recoveries is 620/760 = 0.82. The lower this ratio, the better, because it would indicate that more people are recovering each day than are dying.
US Unresolved: up 20.3 percent, or just under 20,000, to 118,300 currently ill US patients. Presumably, many of these are not currently in hospitals? I’m assuming that many of these have been tested, found to be infected, and instructed to stay in their homes until their symptoms either resolve, or worsen to the point that they are admitted to hospitals.
Charts follow. The last are my first projection charts, which I revised upward yesterday. It still appears that even my upward revision was too optimistic.
Please stay home and be well. If you have friends who still don’t take this seriously, please refer them to these posts
