March 19, 2020, 10:49 pm
#stayhomebewell for updates
Where to begin…?
I’ll start with the today’s basic statistics.
Global Cases: reached 246,583. This represents an increase of 12.47 percent, which is the highest rate of change recorded since February 5. Recall that events in early-mid February related primarily to China, which inflected on February 12. The rate of growth in global cases bottomed on February 23 at only 0.7 percent, after which the total number of cases began to grow at an increasing rate, reflecting the shift of the virus to Iran and Europe.
The fact of a growing growth rate means that we are still on this side of the mountain. When the growth rate starts to slow, we will have some inkling that the summit is somewhere in the distance. It is worth noting again that, in the beginning of a series of events, an increase from 1 to 2 represents a growth rate of 100 percent. To achieve another day of 100 percent growth, we would need to see the next day’s figure at 4; then at 8; then at 16, et cetera. This is the definition of exponential growth.
At exponential growth, over a period of 30 days, 1 increases to more than 1,000,000,000. One billion.
Now, at a rate of, say, 10 percent per day, 1 would increase to 16. And at a rate of 50 percent per day, after 30 days, 1 would increase to 127,834.
What we are looking at globally, however, is that we currently have almost 250,000 cases, and we’ve increased by 12.5 percent today, and the trend suggests that the growth rate tomorrow will be higher still.
Assuming, optimistically, that the growth rate stayed unchanged for 30 more days, then we would see 7,609,623 cases globally. I’ve calculated three scenarios for the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), at 1, 2, and 3 percent. The number of deaths we could expect after 30 days would be roughly 76,000, 152,000, and 228,000, respectively.
After another 30 days, the results are terrifying. 260 million cases, and from 2.6 million to 7.8 million deaths globally.
If the growth rate can be slowed to only 10 percent per day, the numbers after 30 days would be just under 4 million cases, and between roughly 40,000 and 120,000 deaths globally.
And if the growth rate could be slowed to only 5 percent per day, then after 30 days we would see just over 1 million cases, and between roughly 10,000 and 30,000 deaths.
But the news is worse that that. The number of deaths has been growing at an increasing rate, which is to be expected with a growing baseline number of cases. The number of deaths rose by more than 1,200 today, representing a rate of increase of 13.43 percent, where the rates from the last several days have been 12 percent, 11 percent, 10 percent, and so on.
However, the percentage of cases resulting in death is also increasing. The total deaths globally is 10,171 at the time of this writing. But the rate of change in the number of deaths each day is rising. The lowest point in the Case Fatality Rate (which I’m oversimplifying by merely dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases) was from February 26-29, when it averaged 1.9 percent. From March 1 to today, the daily ratio of deaths to total cases has been rising, and is currently at 4.12 percent. My projections above were for CFRs of 1, 2, and 3 percent. However, I’m not sure how to interpret the CFR figures, because the denominator is always moving, and includes cases that were resolved months ago being compared to deaths that occurred over time and in different places. Suffice it to say that that is what Deaths / Cases is equal to. I don’t claim to know what it means exactly.
In an interview on “Morning Joe” today, NY governor Cuomo said they estimate a three week lag time in the numbers of positive test results compared to actual infections. This is what Fauci was referring to when he said that, if you think you are at the level that you are seeing, you’re not. What you can see is always lagging behind what actually is happening.
Cuomo said they conducted 8,000 tests just today, so the number of positives will undoubtedly spike. At the time of the interview, the number of cases in New York was just under 3,000, and the number of deaths was at 21.
Joe asked Cuomo with trepidation in his voice what multiple does he have in his mind as to the actual number of infections, and whether he thought the actual number of infections should be estimated as “possibly five-fold… ten-fold of that number?”
Cuomo did not answer directly. He paused, made a very slight clearing of his throat, and said, “…eh…it may be even…it may be even…uh, higher than we’re even talking about, Joe, *ahem*. We did some projections… We think here in New York, and remember you’re gonna have different trajectories in different states depending on when it started, etc., but we’re looking here at a peak in about five or six weeks. Uh, we’re looking at about 110,000 hospitalizations, about 25,000 to 37,000 people needing ICU beds. That vastly overwhelms our healthcare capacity.”
The relevant bit starts at 2:05 in the attached video.
He did not lie. But he knows that one would have to do some research and make some calculations in order to understand what this means.
It means that the multiplier Joe was asking for is actually not five or ten. The multiplier Joe was asking for is one hundred and sixty-seven.
The estimated number of infections in New York state under which he is operating is five hundred thousand. If one percent of those cases die, that means 5,000 deaths. Two percent means 10,000.
Then he pivoted to try to focus on the positive, by saying, “The best news is I think the federal government has now really gotten this and they’re engaged. This is a war, it’s a different type of war, but it’s a war requiring massive government mobilization, and only the federal government can do that.”
I. Think. The Federal Government. Has Now. Really Gotten This. And. They’re. Engaged.
It is March. Nineteenth. Twenty Twenty. And the best news is that the federal government has now really gotten this.
The numbers for the United States are as follows:
Total Cases: 13,921. Up 47.53 percent from yesterday. That number might be skewed upwards by the increase in tests Cuomo referred to, but I don’t think they get the results back on the same day. I think his testing spike is still a couple of days out.
Total Deaths: 207. Up 33.55 percent from yesterday. This means that the early cases are resolving. Either in recovery or in death.
Total Recoveries: unchanged from yesterday at 108.
Case Fatality Rate: 1.49 percent.
Now, in another TV interview today (the one where the former head of the Florida FEMA branch stormed out of the interview cursing), the guy who stayed and spoke said the number of cases was doubling every three days. Originally, I had projected a doubling every six days, because that’s what I had heard somewhere.
Then, yesterday, I reported that the number had actually doubled in only three days. I posted a graph showing what that would mean.
It would mean that in six weeks time, by April 30, the United States will have 150,000,000 cases of COVID-19 infection. At a CFR of 2 percent, we will see 5,000,000 deaths.
I cannot conceive of what I have just written.
Please. Everyone. For the love of God. Tell your friends to STAY HOME.
#stayhomebewell