March 18, 2020, 2:30 pm
#stayhomebewell for updates
If you haven’t taken this seriously yet, now I’m going to try to scare you straight.
According to the averages of the CDC’s figures for flu seasons 2010-2019, the seasonal flu in the US infects an average of 28 million Americans each year, requiring an average of 13 million medical visits and 447,000 hospitalizations. It causes an average of 37,500 deaths each year.
37,500 / 28,000,000 = 0.0013, or thirteen hundredths of one percent (0.13%). This is what is known as the Case Fatality Rate (CFR).
Estimates of the CFR that I have seen for COVID-19 have ranged from 0.6% to 3.4%. This means that by the lowest estimate, COVID-19 is nearly five times more lethal than seasonal flu, and by the highest estimate, twenty-six times more lethal.
The CFR can’t be known until an epidemic has run its course. Hence, the CDC publishes estimates each year. The CFR for COVID-19 is unknown, but we do have some data.
Of the nearly 73,000 closed cases in China, 96% recovered and 4% died. There are 8,000 active cases remaining, and the number of new cases each day is decreasing, with today’s count at 13 (the inflection point for China, or the day with the highest number of new cases, was February 12, with 14,108 new cases in a single day).
Of the 222 closed cases in the US, 48% recovered and 52% have died. There are more than 7,000 active cases.
Currently, if we simply divide the number of deaths by the number of total cases in the US, we get (as of yesterday): 115/6,509 = 1.77%. That is thirteen times more lethal than seasonal flu.
But that’s not the scary part.
The scary part is how rapidly the infection is spreading.
Initial estimates from the CDC were that the number of infections would double every six days. I began tracking the pandemic on March 11. At that time, there were 1,189 known infections. Yesterday was March 17, six days past. The projected number should have been 1,189 x 2 = 2,378.
It wasn’t. It was 6,509.
Our number hit and surpassed 2,378 on March 14. After only three days. Of course, we don’t have fuck all yet as far as testing (unless you’re a professional basketball player, then it’s 100%). So the numbers that we do have, are most likely grossly understating the situation.
Here’s what I think this could mean. I hope to God that I am wrong.
#stayhomebewell